How Much House Does $100K Buy? Prices, Mortgage Rates and the Rules That Decide It in 8 Cities (2026)
The same six-figure salary buys a family apartment in Riyadh, a studio in Seoul and a down payment in Sydney. Price-to-income ratios, monthly mortgage payments, and the policy levers — LTV caps, stamp duties, foreign-buyer bans — that shape each market.
Episode 1 showed where $100,000 leaves the most after rent. This episode asks the harder question: can it buy? The answer depends less on the salary than on three numbers — the local price-to-income ratio, the mortgage rate, and how much a bank is allowed to lend you — plus a stack of rules that differ wildly by country.
The scoreboard: a 2-bedroom apartment on $100K
| City | 2-BR price | Price ÷ income | Mortgage rate | Payment (80% LTV, 30 yr) | Payment ÷ net pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riyadh | $400,000 | 7× | 6.0% | $1,920 | 23% |
| Berlin | $605,000 | 9× | 3.6% | $2,200 | 45% |
| New York | $850,000 | 10× | 6.6% | $4,340 | 75% |
| Tokyo | $610,000 | 12× | 0.8% (variable) | $1,530 | 27% |
| London | $770,000 | 12× | 4.5% | $3,120 | 56% |
| Seoul | $870,000 | 15× | 4.2% | $3,400 (if LTV allowed) | 51% |
| Sydney | $865,000 | 13× | 5.9% | $4,100 | 67% |
| Singapore | $1,195,000 (condo) | 14× | 3.3% | $4,190 | 53% |
Prices: typical (not prime) 2-bedroom, mid-2026. Payment ÷ net uses the Episode 1 net figures. Banks in most of these markets refuse loans above ~35–45% of net income — so the rows in red-zone territory (New York, Sydney, London) are not "expensive", they are unfinanceable on this salary without a partner's income or a large deposit.
Lever 1 — The mortgage rate is doing more than the price
Tokyo and Berlin are more expensive than Riyadh, yet the monthly payment is lower or similar because the interest rate is a third. At 0.8%, a ¥95M Tokyo condo costs ¥230,000 a month; the same loan at New York's 6.6% would be ¥520,000. Japan's ultra-low variable rates (and the 0.7% housing-loan tax credit) are why Tokyo home-ownership is possible on ordinary salaries despite a 12× price-to-income ratio — and why a Bank of Japan hike is the single biggest risk to Tokyo prices.
The flip side: the US 30-year fixed rate locks the payment for life. A New Yorker who bought in 2021 at 2.9% pays half of what a 2026 buyer pays for the same apartment, and will not sell — the "lock-in effect" that keeps American inventory scarce.
Lever 2 — How much the bank may lend (LTV, DSR, stress tests)
| Market | Max loan-to-value | Income test | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seoul | 40–70% depending on zone and price | DSR ≤ 40% of income | Prices are set by cash-rich buyers and jeonse deposits; salary earners are rationed out of Gangnam |
| Singapore | 75% | TDSR ≤ 55% | Plus 60% ABSD for foreigners — condos are effectively a citizens'/PR market |
| Canada | 80% (95% with insurance) | Qualify at rate + 2% | Stress test removes ~20% of borrowing power when rates are low |
| Sweden | 85% | Amortise 2–3%/yr above 50% LTV | Forces principal repayment; household debt still ~190% of income |
| Switzerland | 80% (20% own funds, 10% cash) | Affordability at a 5% imputed rate | Only ~36% own; mortgages are often never repaid |
| Japan | Up to 100% | ~35% of gross | Ownership accessible; prices anchored by rates, not credit limits |
| United States | 97% (FHA 96.5%) | DTI ≤ 43–50% | Access is easy; rates and prices do the rationing |
Korea is the clearest example of a market governed by credit rules rather than prices: when the DSR cap tightened in 2024–25, transaction volumes fell before prices did. Watch the regulator, not the listings.
Lever 3 — Taxes and who is allowed to buy
- Foreign-buyer bans and surcharges: Canada (ban to 2027), Australia (2-year ban on established homes, 8% NSW surcharge), Singapore (60% ABSD), New Zealand (ban since 2018), Switzerland (Lex Koller). Hong Kong went the other way and scrapped all surcharges in 2024 to stop a 30% slide.
- Transaction taxes that change behaviour: UK stamp duty (5–12% at London prices) and Germany's 10–15% all-in buying costs make moving expensive, so people stay put or rent. Dubai's 4% and Japan's ~3–5% keep markets liquid.
- Anti-flipping: Taiwan taxes gains 45% if sold within 2 years; Korea and Thailand penalise short holding periods; Germany exempts gains only after 10 years.
- First-time-buyer subsidies: UK Lifetime ISA (25% bonus) and 0% SDLT to £300k; France's 0% PTZ loan; Italy's 80% guarantee for under-36s; Taiwan's 40-year youth loan; Australia's 5% deposit guarantee; Brazil's Minha Casa Minha Vida at 4–8%. These raise demand at the bottom of the market — and, economists note, often the prices too.
- Rent control: Berlin, Paris, Amsterdam (points system to ~€1,185), Catalonia, and proposals in Mexico City. They protect sitting tenants and shrink new supply; newcomers pay the difference.
The three markets in trouble — and why it matters for buyers
China (Shanghai down 20–30% from peak, developer defaults), Hong Kong (down ~25–30%, surcharges scrapped) and Bangkok/Manila (unsold condo inventory) are buyer's markets in 2026. The lesson from all three is the same: prices that rose on credit expansion fall when credit is withdrawn, regardless of "land is scarce" arguments. Buy on payment-to-income, not on the story.
A buyer's rule of thumb that works everywhere
Affordable price ≈ (net monthly pay × 0.35 × 12) ÷ annual mortgage constant + deposit
Mortgage constant (30-yr): 1% → 0.0386 · 3% → 0.0506 · 4.5% → 0.0608 · 6.5% → 0.0759
Example, Berlin, $4,900 net, $100k deposit, 3.6%:
4,900 × 0.35 × 12 = 20,580 / 0.0548 = $375,000 loan → $475,000 total
→ a 2-BR in Berlin ($605k) needs a partner's income or a $230k depositNext in this series: $100K and children — childcare, school fees and family tax credits in the same eight cities.
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